slug: "predictions/2024"
translates: "predictions/2024"
lang: en
title: "My predictions for 2024"
pageCreated: "2024-01-02"
pageUpdated: "2024-12-31"
extends ../../../views/layout.pug
mixin tick
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mixin squiggle
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polyline(points="6,18 12.667,14 19.333,18 26,14")
mixin cross
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mixin question
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append cosmetics
link(href="/predictions/2024/2024.css", rel="stylesheet")
block translations
include ../navtable.pug
block content
div.prediction.wrong
header
+cross
div.verdict Wrong
small.serial-number
| Serial no.
br
b P24-EU-001
div.prediction-contents
p #[strong Labour will win a majority, with around 330 seats] — a bit less than Boris Johnson’s 2019 barnstorm. They will be weighed down by a strong performance from the Lib Dems.
p.accent #[i A dog could have predicted Labour would win — i’m not inclined to give myself this.]
div.prediction.correct
header
+tick
div.verdict Correct
small.serial-number
| Serial no.
br
b P24-EU-002
div.prediction-contents
p #[strong They will also markedly improve their seat count in Scotland], to the #[+sc("SNP")]’s detriment.
div.prediction.info
header
+dots
div.verdict N/A
small.serial-number
| Serial no.
br
b P24-AM-999
div.prediction-contents
p #[strong I have no prediction for the outcome of the U.S.’ presidential election]. Literally anything could happen — that thing’s shape in the weft of history is that of a chaos butterfly.
div.prediction.wrong
header
+cross
div.verdict Wrong
small.serial-number
| Serial no.
br
b P24-AM-002
div.prediction-contents
p #[strong One of the Messrs Trump and Biden] #[em may] die, this year or next year. It seems like the sort of thing that might happen to throw a wrench into things.
p.accent #[i Wrong… but only by a few centimetres.]
div.prediction.wrong
header
+cross
div.verdict Wrong
small.serial-number
| Serial no.
br
b P24-WA-001
div.prediction-contents
p #[strong Israel wins the war in Gaza], at a steep cost to human life. The people thereof will be no better off than before, whatever comes after.
p.accent #[i The bolded part? Not yet. The rest of it? Alas…]
div.prediction.correct
header
+tick
div.verdict Correct
small.serial-number
| Serial no.
br
b P24-WA-002
div.prediction-contents
p #[strong Narendra Modi remains in power in India.]
div.prediction.wrong
header
+cross
div.verdict Wrong
small.serial-number
| Serial no.
br
b P24-AF-001
div.prediction-contents
p #[strong A coup will overtake another #[a(href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ECOWAS") Ecowas] country.]
div.prediction.correct
header
+tick
div.verdict Correct
small.serial-number
| Serial no.
br
b P24-TC-001
div.prediction-contents
p #[strong An Anglosphere country will ban TikTok] (where “Anglosphere” here means one of the U.S., the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, or Ireland).
p.accent #[i Squeaking in under the buzzer, the U.S. is set to ban TikTok from January 19th to presumably the very next day.]
div.prediction.mixed
header
+squiggle
div.verdict Mixed results
small.serial-number
| Serial no.
br
b P24-TC-002
div.prediction-contents
p #[strong Stable Diffusion will win its lawsuit or settle out of court]…
p.accent #[i These things always take longer than my hurried arse expects.]
div.prediction.wrong
header
+cross
div.verdict Wrong
small.serial-number
| Serial no.
br
b P24-TC-003
div.prediction-contents
p …But #[strong OpenAI will lose its.]
div.prediction.correct
header
+tick
div.verdict Correct
small.serial-number
| Serial no.
br
b P24-TC-004
div.prediction-contents
p #[strong There will be another Nintendo “gigaleak”.]
p.accent #[i Yep, this time from Game Freak.]
div.prediction.mixed
header
+squiggle
div.verdict Mixed results
small.serial-number
| Serial no.
br
b P24-PC-001
div.prediction-contents
p The vibes are off; #[strong pop music in 2024 will be the least relevant it’s been in a long while.] The average person on the street will struggle to name more than one or two songs that will have come out this year. (#[i Gosh, that last sentence was a tense car crash, wasn’t it?])
p.accent #[i Too subjective to really judge. People seem to like this Chappel Roan fellow.]
div.prediction.mixed
header
+squiggle
div.verdict Mixed results
small.serial-number
| Serial no.
br
b P24-PC-002
div.prediction-contents
p #[strong Marvel will implode in spectacular fashion], with some big internal shakeup or another.